The Age Wave® Opportunity

But why, alas, should the tale be told To men grown old, or who are growing old It is too late! Ah, nothing is too late Till the tired heart shall cease to palpitate. Cato learned Greek at eighty, Sophocles wrote his grand Oedipus, and Simonides Bore off the prize from his compeers When each had numbered more than fourscore years. And Theophrastes, at fourscore and ten Had but begun his Characters of Men. Chaucer at Woodstock with the nightingales, At sixty wrote The Canterbury Tales. Goethe, at Weimar, toiling to the last Completed Faust when eighty years were past. These are indeed exceptions, but they show How far the Gulfstream of our youth may flow Into the arctic regions of our lives, When little else but life survives.

Longfellow, on the occasion of the 50th Anniversary of Bowdoin College, 1825

In many ways, the Age Wave® Opportunity constitutes the centerpiece of the industry's initiative to reach 100 million members by the year 2010. This enormous population, born between 1946 and 1963, is now transitioning into an entirely new lifestage. On January 1, 2000, Baby Boomers will range between 37 and 54 years of age. Between 2000 and 2010, they will traverse their 40s, 50s, and enter their early 60s. By the decade's end, they will range in age from 47 to 64

From a U.S. perspective, there are ten fundamental reasons to believe that this opportunity is vitally central to the achievement of 50 Million by 2010. These reasons include the following: 1. Size. Baby Boomers comprise by far the largest single population cohort in the U.S. Totaling 78 million Americans and 31% of the total U.S. population, they surpass Generation X by more than 30 million people.

2. Growth. In the period between the year 2000 and the year 2010, the number of Americans aged 45 to 64 will increase from 57.6 million to 78.9 million-an increase of 36.9%. Beginning on January 1, 1996 and continuing until January 1, 2013, over 11,000 Americans will turn 50 every day, and over 330,000 Americans will turn 50 every month. And for the next 14 years, more than 4 million Americans will turn 50 every year. During this same period, the number of Americans, aged 25 to 44, will decrease by 6.5 million (7.8%) from 83.1 million to 76.8 million (Figure 8.2).

In short, the Baby Boomers represent the only U.S. demographic segment that will experience dramatic growth during the next decade (Figure 8.3).

3. Influence. Its sheer size has given the Baby Boom generation an historically disproportionate influ- ence within American culture as a whole. Whether in terms of media attention, social impact, or political influence, this generation has, to a significant degree, set the agenda for the entire nation for the last 40 years. If this influence has been real thus far, it will grow even more pronounced in the next 10 years. Over the next decade, this age group will solidify its control of the leadership positions in every area of American life-from the arts and media, to medicine, business, educa- tion, government, and the military. In all of these fields, their interests, preoccupations, and sensi- bilities will shape the interests, preoccupations, and sensibilities of the entire nation. It stands to reason, therefore, that this generation's interest in fitness, wellness, and health will determine the interest and focus on these issues for the entire country.

4. Wealth. By every measure, this group is rapidly becoming the most affluent segment of the American population. Measured in net worth, household income, or disposable income, this gener- ation will soon become the most affluent demographic group in the history of Western civilization. Not only will the coming decade put this generation at the height of its considerable earning poten- tial, but as its members inherit the estates of their parents, they will be on the receiving end of the greatest wealth transfer in modern history. In the next 20 years, this generation will inherit estates worth over $10 trillion-50% more than the market value of every stock traded on the New York Stock Exchange. In short, barring the unfore- seen, no generation in American history will have access to greater financial resources to invest in their health and wellness than this population.

5. Stability. By reason of their age, income, and lifestyle, this population segment will be entering the most stable and predictable period of their lives. The annual move rate for men and women pass- ing through their 40s, 50s, and 60s is two to three times less than it is for people in their 20s and 30s (Figure 8.4).

Such stability will contribute to significantly higher membership retention rates among this group than ever could be achieved among younger men and women in their 20s and 30s.

6. Health Status. For the most part, this population enjoys good health. At the same time, it is during these years that this generation will become progressively more conscious of their vulnerability and mortality. Almost everyone in this age group begins to experience the unexpected passing of friends, relatives, and colleagues. They also become much more attuned to the changes in their own bodies, and to the importance of maintaining and improving their own health status. As David Cook recently wrote in The Pig in the Python, How to Prosper from the Aging Baby Boom, "Any company that can tap into the health worries of the boomers will land a guaranteed and large market."

7. Lifestyle Consciousness. As people move through their 40s, 50s, and early 60s, they become progressively more aware that they need to take better care of themselves if they wish to remain healthy and productive. In terms of lifestyle, this 40-to-65 period becomes the "sensible and responsible years" when most men and women become more conscious of their need to eat sensi- bly, drink moderately, rest sufficiently, and exercise regularly.

8. Medical Support. Unlike previous generations that have passed through these years, today's intellec- tual leadership within the mainstream medical community is fully persuaded that regular exercise is central to successful aging. Dr. John Rowe, President of Mount Sinai Hospital and the principal author of the MacArthur Foundation's 1998 report on Successful Aging, states the matter succinctly: "The dominant effect of fitness over other risk factors, and its apparent effect as an antidote for other risk factors, makes physical fitness the single most important thing an elder person can do to remain healthy. Physical activity is the crux of successful aging, regardless of other factors." (Successful Aging, Dr. John W. Rowe, Pantheon Books, 1998, p. 98.) In similar fashion, influential health journalists, such as Jane Brody, Health Editor of the New York Times, write without a trace of irony that "regular physical activity comes closer to being a fountain of youth than anything medicine can offer." During the coming decade, information such as this will be continually disseminated to the American public by the nation's foremost physicians, health insurers, and health organizations such as The American Heart Association, the National Arthritis Foundation, and others. Indeed, the CDC (Center for Disease Control) recently increased its budget to promote regular exercise and healthy nutrition by almost 250%-from $47 million in 1997 to $112 million in 1999 (Figure 8.5).

Already more concerned about its health than any other generation in America, Baby Boomers will also be continually and increasingly advised by the entire medical community that regular exercise is vital to improving and even maintaining their quality of life.

9. Time. As people move through their 40s and 50s and into their early 60s, two things happen with their time. First, for a variety of reasons, they have more of it. The average 55-60 year old man or woman enjoys approximately eight more discretionary hours per week than the average 40-45 year old (Figure 8.6). Second, in addition to having more time, those in their 40s and 50s enjoy greater control over their time. As parental responsibilities begin to diminish and work status rises, their ability to control the use of their time also increases.

This broadens yet another window of opportunity with this key market segment. As a group, the lives of this population are less harried and less stressed than those of their younger colleagues.

10. Past History. Represented in the media by the likes of Jane Fonda, Richard Simmons, and Arnold Schwarzenegger, this generation has led the movement for fitness and exercise in the U.S. for nearly 30 years. So, it is no accident that the regeneration of the fitness club industry in the late 1970s and early 1980s coincided with their early adult years. From their early 20s onward, this generation has been more fitness, exercise and health club oriented than any previous generation. In essence, this generation singlehandedly regenerated the entire health club industry. This fact alone suggests that the industry's exercise message will not fall on deaf ears. As a group, they are already fully attuned to its importance.

In aggregate, these ten factors add up to one powerful and inescapable truth: namely, that the generation responsible for so much of the industry's early success will now become the living rock and foundation of its future growth pyramid.

Evidence for this prediction is further strengthened by what has already transpired in the past ten years. In the decade between 1987 and 1997, even before the first Baby Boomer turned 55, the fastest growing membership segment of the health club industry was adult men and women over the age of 55. This market segment, in relative percentages, if not in absolute numbers, grew four times as fast as young adults, 18 to 34, and twice as fast as adults, 35 to 54 (Figure 8.7).

The fact that growth in this segment preceded the emergence of the fitness-conscious Baby Boomers into this age category offers hope that future growth in this segment will be even more dramatic than it has proven to be already. Thus, in every respect, this generation presents the worldwide health club industry with an opportunity of historic proportions. In large measure, the future success of the industry will be measured by its ability to capture the hearts and minds, as well as the passionate interest and loyalty, of this immense population.